FP MAE — Mean Absolute Error of fantasy point predictions. Lower is better. Compares our model vs Underdog's site projections against what actually happened.
TB Bias — How far off Vegas total bases lines are on average. +0.45 means batters outperform their TB line by 0.45 bases — Vegas is too low.
K Bias — Same for strikeouts. -0.23 means pitchers get fewer Ks than their line — Vegas is too high.
Segment Tables
Bias — Average (actual − line). Positive = actual exceeds Vegas line. Negative = actual falls short.
Over% — How often the actual stat exceeds the Vegas line. 58% = exploitable over (Vegas underestimates). 35% = exploitable under (Vegas overestimates). 45% = fairly priced.
MAE — Average size of the miss regardless of direction. Higher = more volatile / harder to predict.
Color Coding
Green — Over% above 55% (Vegas systematically too low — bet overs) or positive bias
Red — Over% below 40% (Vegas systematically too high — bet unders) or negative bias
Gray — Near 50% (fairly priced, no edge)
Daily Trend Charts
MAE chart — Our model's FP error vs Underdog's, per day. Lower line = more accurate that day. Watch for divergence or spikes.
Bias chart — Directional FP error per day. Zero line = perfect. Consistently above/below zero signals systematic over/under-prediction.
Today's Edges
Cross-references today's live props against historical patterns. When a segment has a proven bias (e.g. sub-1 TB lines hit overs 57% of the time), players in that segment today are flagged as actionable edges for draft/lineup decisions.
Key Takeaways
Vegas TB lines are consistently too low (especially sub-1 lines and UNDER-juiced prices)
Vegas K lines are too high for aces (7+ K lines only hit 20% of the time)
Middle-order batters (LU#5-8) are more underpriced than leadoff hitters
Our model beats Underdog's projections on FP accuracy