MLB Prop Sheet — K & TB Lines | Daily Draft Guides

HOW TO READ — SP STRIKEOUTS

Columns

K LINE: The book’s over/under total for that pitcher’s strikeouts. Default sort.
MOVE: Directional movement vs the oldest line-history snapshot in the last 2 hours. 7.5↓6.5 = line dropped, 5.5↑6.5 = raised. Price-only moves shown when the line held but juice shifted. 30m = how long ago the prior snapshot was.
PRICE: American moneyline for the over, averaged across DK, FD, BetMGM, Bovada. + = underdog (better payout), − = favorite.
IMPLIED: Raw probability the over hits, derived from PRICE. No vig removal.
HIT%: Historical over-hit rate for the same K-line bucket across accumulated actuals. n= shows sample size. Refreshed daily after 6am ET actuals collection. Baseline ~47%.
K/9 EST: Baseline expected Ks for the start: (season K/9 ÷ 9) × projected IP. Pure rate extrapolation — doesn’t account for opposing lineup, umpire, weather.
EDGE: K/9 EST − K LINE, in strikeouts. Lean OVER if positive, UNDER if negative.
IP: Projected innings pitched (from Vegas pitcher_outs market ÷ 3).
WIN%: Implied win probability for the pitcher’s team from the moneyline.
O/U: Game over/under total runs. Lower = pitcher-friendly environment.
REST: Days since last pitching appearance.
UMP: Home plate umpire’s last name. Individual umpires shift K-rate by up to ±12% (see Edge Dashboard).

Color rules

IMPLIED: Green < 45% (cheap, value spot). Red > 58% (expensive juice).
HIT%: Green ≥ 52%. Red ≤ 43%. Compare to ~47% baseline; treat small-n buckets as noise.
EDGE: Green ≥ +0.3 K. Red ≤ −0.3 K.
REST: Green ≥ 5 days (fresh). Amber < 5 days (short rest).
MOVE: Green = line drop (easier over). Red = line rise (harder over).

TODAY’S EDGES — surfacing rules

Threshold: Top 5 SPs where HIT% (bucketed by implied prob) − IMPLIED% ≥ 3pp on the better side (OVER or UNDER).
Side picked: Whichever side (OVER vs UNDER) has the larger gap vs implied. UNDER is preferred when the UNDER price is at the highest available line; OVER prefers lowest line, tiebreak by best price.
Min sample: Bucket must have n ≥ 20 to be eligible. ⚠ = bucket n < 50, treat as noise.
4-year backtest: The bucket-flagging logic was backtested across 2023–2026 (n=1,619 flagged bets): −8.76% ROI overall. The 28-slate window that inspired this panel showed +7.76pp — that was variance. These edges are surfaced as research context, not action items.

Caveat: PRICE/IMPLIED blank once a game starts (books pull live props). K/9 EST is a sanity check against the line, not a bet signal on its own.

HOW TO READ — BATTER TOTAL BASES

Columns

TB LINE: Over/under total bases. Single = 1, double = 2, triple = 3, HR = 4.
MOVE: Same mechanism as the SP tab, but uncolored for TB: a small-sample backtest (n=61) found TB drops actually predicted UNDERS (the line drop IS the new info — books pre-priced it). Direction is shown but not interpreted until higher-n confirmation.
PRICE: American moneyline for the over. +109 means $100 wins $109; −130 risks $130 to win $100.
IMPLIED: Raw probability from PRICE. No vig removal.
HIT%: Historical over-hit rate for the same implied-% bucket (or TB line if price missing). Note: 60%+ implied overs only hit ~51% historically — books over-price favored bats. Baseline ~47%.
OPS: Season on-base + slugging.
xwOBA: Expected wOBA (Baseball Savant Statcast). Strips luck (BABIP, sequencing) via expected outcomes from exit velocity + launch angle. Better forward predictor than OPS over short samples.
BRL%: Barrel rate — barrels per batted ball event (optimal exit-velo + launch-angle, typically ≥98 mph at 26-30°). Cleanest power signal; small HR samples are noisy, BRL% is not.
L7 OPS: Rolling 7-day OPS — hot/cold vs season baseline.
HR: Season home runs. A TB 1.5 line is much easier for HR hitters (one swing = 4 TB).
DIST: Quantile model’s 10th / 50th / 90th percentile fantasy-point projections. Shows the shape of the distribution: narrow = safe floor, wide = boom/bust. Not a direct TB prediction.
PLAT: Platoon-matchup factor vs opposing SP (career vs LHP/RHP).
OPP K/9: Opposing pitcher’s strikeouts per 9. High = bad for batter (fewer chances to record bases).
OPP ERA: Opposing pitcher’s season ERA. Lower = harder spot.
O/U: Game over/under. ≥9 = run-scoring environment.

Color rules

IMPLIED: Green < 45%. Red > 58%.
HIT%: Green ≥ 52%. Red ≤ 43%.
OPS: .800+ elite. .700+ solid. Below dim.
xwOBA: .380+ elite. .330+ solid. Below dim.
BRL%: 12%+ elite. 7%+ solid.
PLAT: ≥ 1.05× favorable. ≤ 0.95× unfavorable.

TODAY’S EDGES — surfacing rules

Threshold: Top 5 batters where HIT% (bucketed by implied prob) − IMPLIED% ≥ 3pp on the better side.
Side picked: OVER prefers the lowest available line across books (more reachable). UNDER prefers the highest available line. Tiebreak: best price.
Min sample: Bucket must have n ≥ 20 to be eligible. ⚠ = bucket n < 50, treat as noise.
4-year backtest: The bucket-flagging logic was backtested across 2023–2026 (n=1,619 flagged bets): −8.76% ROI overall, worst on TB (−28.57% ROI). The 28-slate window that inspired this panel showed +7.76pp — that was variance. These edges are surfaced as research context, not action items.

Note: Low IMPLIED% with strong OPS/xwOBA/BRL% is a useful research signal for the BATTER TOTAL BASES tab regardless of the edges panel — the underlying player data is solid even if the bucket-rate flagging doesn't translate to consistent profits.

HOW TO READ — YRFI / NRFI

Columns

YRFI: Yes Run First Inning — the Over on the 1st-inning 0.5-run total. Wins if either team scores in inning 1.
NRFI: No Run First Inning — the Under. Wins if inning 1 is scoreless on both sides.
YRFI % / NRFI %: Implied probability derived from the moneyline price.
GAME TOTAL: Full-game over/under runs. Higher totals correlate with higher YRFI.

Color rules

YRFI % / NRFI %: Green < 45% (value side). Red > 58% (juice).

Refresh cadence

1st-inning lines are set against SP matchup + weather and don’t move meaningfully intraday. We fetch them once on the daily 7am scrape and once on the 10am refresh — not on the every-10-min prop refresh.