PROJ is our model's expected total score in Drafters scoring — strokes vs par for the tournament, plus a +5 penalty weighted by missed-cut/WD/DQ probability. Lower = better. Scheffler at −6 means we expect him to finish around 6 under par; a deep-tier player at +9 is essentially priced for a cut miss + stroke penalty.

CUT % is our model's probability that the golfer makes the 36-hole cut (top 70 + ties). Color-coded: green ≥85% (lock), light green 65–85% (likely), amber 40–65% (coin flip), red <40% (cut risk).

T10 % is our model's probability of finishing top 10. Baseline expectation in a 156-runner field is 10/156 ≈ 6%, so anything ≥30% (green) is elite, ≥15% (light green) is strong upside. T10 is the best single-number ceiling proxy in best ball — useful as a tie-breaker between two golfers with similar PROJ where one has more boom potential.

WIN % is the de-vigged Vegas implied probability of winning outright, averaged across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, LowVig, and BetOnlineAG.

DRAFT PROJ is Drafters' own projection (their internal scale, higher = better) — shown for sanity-checking. Disagreements between our model and Drafters are where edges live: if our PROJ is much lower (better) than what Drafters' PROJ implies, that golfer is likely under-rated by Drafters' system.

EXP FINISH is the Plackett-Luce expected finish position derived from the de-vigged win odds. Useful as a tiebreaker when two golfers have similar projected scores.

Model V1 caveats: projections are derived purely from Vegas outright winner odds — no strokes-gained data, no course fit, no recent form beyond what the books have already priced in. See docs/PGA_MODELER.md in the repo for the full formula and roadmap.